Compression Stack

GQA-8 8x reduction
INT4 quantization 2x reduction
MoD (12.5% active) 8x reduction
StreamingLLM eviction 2x reduction
Total SOTA ~256x reduction

2030 Projection

Model Size —
High Bound —
SOTA (achievable) —
Compression —

Mathematical Foundation

High Bound: M = (T/2) * sqrt(2*N*L)
Chinchilla: N(t) = N0 * 2^((t-2020)/1.8)
Layers: L proportional to N^0.25
SOTA: M / (8*8*2*2) = M/256

References

Scaling Laws Meet Model Architecture
Inference-efficient LLM scaling analysis
Mixture-of-Depths
Dynamic compute allocation (8x reduction)
Chinchilla Scaling Laws
Hoffmann et al. (2022)